Screwed? Counting underway, 2 yards apart, results due this weekend: whither?

Station . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F6Mar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Th19Mar . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . .voters . e-voting . . .e:p . . . . . p- . . . .total . . . .e- % . . . . . e- . . . . . p- . . . . total . t’out %

KPFA . . 12385 . . . 2032 . . . 83:17 . . . 416 . . . 2448 . . . 40.41 . . . 3794 . . . 777 . . . 4571 . . 36.9

KPFK . . 13607 . . . 1001 . . . 87:13 . . . 150 . . . 1151 . . . 19.90 . . . 1869 . . . 279 . . . 2148 . . 15.8

KPFT . . . 4327 . . . . 468 . . . .89:11 . . . . 58 . . . . 526 . . . . 9.31 . . . . .874 . . . 108 . . . . 982 . . 22.7

WPFW . .6029 . . . . 686 . . . .50:50 . . . 686 . . . 1372 . . . 13.64 . . . 1281 . . 1281 . . . 2562 . . 42.5

WBAI . . .5761 . . . . 842 . . . .54:46 . . . 717 . . . 1559 . . . 16.74 . . . 1572 . . 1339 . . . 2911 . . 50.5

. . . . . . . .42109 . . . 5029 . . . . . . . . . . . 2027 . . .7056 . . . . . . . . . . . .9390 . . 3784 . . 13174

turnout . . . . . . . . 11.9% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.8% . . . . . . . . . . .22.3% . . . . . . . . .31.3%

expected listener-member turnout

Referenda voting ended Thursday, 19Mar, on the proposed new Pacifica constitution. A ‘no’ vote was rejecting the anti-democratic, authoritarian move by the breakers, longstanding campaigners to break up the Pacifica network.

Three topics:

  • expected listener-member turnout
  • predicted listener-member voting
  • the staff-member referendum

Expected listener-member turnout

The above table is an expectation of listener-member voting in the referendum, generated by the application of two assumptions upon published & reliable leaked data.

Highlights:

  • if the culture of high paper-voting on the East Coast persists, the NES’ data imply an unusually high total turnout from those stations, delivering big ‘no’ votes, 43% at WPFW & 51% at WBAI;
  • this compares with KPFA achieving 37%;
  • expected total turnout, 31%;
  • actual turnout by online-voters alone is twice that of each of last year’s two rounds of total LSB voting (so including their paper-voting); &
  • total turnout is expected to be x3 that of those 2019 LSB rounds.

Published data:

NES Renee Penaloza’s nominal 2018 LSB pseudo-elections final report, no date (published 18Mar2019) https://mega.nz/#!Yc83WCTT!fxdIWgniK1oLwMqPssGaWDt_qdkQfdaSoEBH0sOClUI

referenda online-voting update, 9.02pm [so presumably PDT], Th19Mar https://mega.nz/#F!dN1VXLiQ!ywTPcyUP8SWg4BviRNx1xw (#6 in the series)

Leaked data: NES’ emails to the Pacifica directors, Th5Mar & F6Mar https://pacificaradiowatch.home.blog/2020/03/17/screwed-qm-1-in-13-purged-from-the-listener-elector-roll-wbai-culled-by-30pc-whilst-kpft-grows-by-21pc-update-on-the-th5mar-pnb-figures/

Assumptions:

  • the proportion of each station’s paper-voting (‘e:p’ in the table, the ratio) is the same as given in the last publicly available LSB data, per the nominal 2018 final report (the Jan-Mar2019 voting for all stations bar WPFW; that station in the 2016 LSB election; please see pp. 17 & 19); in all likelihood it’s less, with increased internet usage, but applying a factor of 10% or 20% (a deflator) would be unnecessarily speculative; &
  • final online-voting (‘e-voting’ in the table) is split between the stations in the same ratio as at F6Mar; so this assumes the KPFA online surge at 6Mar not only didn’t exhaust itself but was maintained, so keeping its 40% share of online-voting.

Predicted listener-member voting

Station . . . . No . . . . .Yes . . Yes %

KPFA . . . . . 2000 . . .2571 . . . 56

KPFK . . . . . 1400 . . . .748 . . . 35

KPFT . . . . . . .582 . . . .400 . . .41

WPFW . . . .2400 . . . . 162 . . . .6

WBAI . . . . .2800 . . . . 111 . . . .4

Total . . . . . 9182 . . . 3992

Two assumptions are made above, & in the 11Mar post a guess was made of the breakers’ core support, 1 200 – 1 500 KPFA & KPFT listener-members. Given this, the above rough prediction is made: a ‘no’ vote of 70% wins, rejecting the breakers.

https://pacificaradiowatch.home.blog/2020/03/11/is-pacifica-about-to-get-screwed-qm-kpfa-overperforming-by-c-70pc-wbai-underperforming-by-c-29pc/

The staff-member referendum

Remember, the breakers need to win both referenda to effect their proposed change.

The electorate was 955. Paper-voting is likely to be immaterial; for example, it was only 4 out of 466 in the Jan-Mar2019 LSB voting. In the referendum, the NES says 51.4% voted, so 491. (Turnouts in last year’s LSB voting: 47.6% in Jan-Mar, 36.7% in Aug-Oct.) If all 491 are valid ballots, that means 246 wins this is 32 more than the KPFA electorate. The station turnouts at F6Mar: KPFA 36%, KPFK 17%, KPFT 27%, WPFW 35%, WBAI 44%. Being so high, it makes no sense trying to estimate expected station final turnouts.

Could the breakers have garnered 246 staff? Unlikely.

~~~

POSTSCRIPT on the virus (SARS-CoV-2) causing the disease (COVID-19)

Article by Mike Davis, from last Saturday, 14Mar; hopefully he’s interviewed by KPFK, if not KPFA.

https://jacobinmag.com/2020/03/mike-davis-coronavirus-outbreak-capitalism-left-international-solidarity/

Public health officials, worldwide, knew a global health emergency was coming. The World Health Organization (WHO) even explicitly warned of highly infectious disease yet to come into existence, which it designated as Disease X: “[t]he needs for research preparedness for a new disease were also deemed to fit into the ‘urgent’ category” (report on 8-9Dec2015 workshop, page 2). WHO also made a very short vid on this, Mar2018. And it was even discussed 10 months before the COVID-19 outbreak, at the winter playground of the Masters of the Universe, Davos – discussed when the media were focusing on Greta.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/blue-print/blueprint-for-r-d-preparedness-and-response-meeting-report.pdf (8-9Dec2015); https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBM8emEVe8Q (WHO explain the Disease X conception, Mar2018; 2mins) & https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gBDkXzgMDM (Davos, Feb2019; 58mins)

Healthcare professionals also did their part preparing the public. In 2018, for example, Peter Piot, head of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, gave a Royal Institution lecture, Are we ready for the next pandemic?.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=en06PYwvpbI (29June2018, 1:02:00)

The public was also made aware through simulations such as this, also from 2018, one that took place in Australia, This is not a drill: a hypothetical pandemic‘.

https://www.wheelercentre.com/broadcasts/this-is-not-a-drill-a-hypothetical-pandemic (bios of participants) & https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4zaazgR87k (6Sep2018; 59mins; only 26k views, but it’ll grow)

Finally, handwashing vids from WHO & the US’ CDC; the WHO one is done by Dr Tedros, the world’s fave Ethiopian, who when he’s not modelling, pursues his day job, Director-General of the WHO:

& https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d914EnpU4Fo (where’s Dr Fauci when you need him?)

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